1. What marketXED is, and what it is not

marketXED is a decision-support tool for short-term US equity trades. It continuously scans a watchlist plus dynamic Yahoo screeners, scores each ticker through a committee of independent analytical agents, and produces a small number of actionable signals per session, each accompanied by an explicit, beginner-safe playbook (limit price, stop, target, share count, dollar risk, exit time).

• It is a structured second opinion that enforces process: defined risk, hard exits, calibrated probabilities, and a learning feedback loop.
• It is not a broker, an execution engine, an oracle, or a guarantee. You place every order. You own every loss and every gain.

2. The data pipeline

Every poll cycle (~60 seconds) the server performs roughly the following work for each ticker in the active universe:

1. OHLCV candles are fetched from Yahoo Finance (free, public). Both intraday and daily series are pulled depending on mode (Day vs Swing).
2. Sentiment is computed from X/Twitter posts (when feed is enabled) using VADER, an off-the-shelf NLP scorer tuned for short social text. Score range: −1 (very negative) to +1 (very positive).
3. Regime detection classifies the broader market (trending / mean-reverting / volatile / quiet) and scales each agent's vote accordingly.
4. Vetoes filter out structurally unsuitable setups (e.g. ultra-thin volume, illiquid pre-market, gap-and-fade traps).
5. Learning weights from the historical hit-rate of each agent on each regime are applied as multipliers.

All persistent files (state.json, signals.json, learning.json, predictions.jsonl) are written atomically with secrets locked to 0o600 permissions.

3. The 10-agent committee

Ten independent agents each emit a vote in [-1, +1] and a confidence in [0, 1]. They are deliberately heterogeneous so they fail in different ways:

The committee then runs a three-round debate:

1. Round 1, Declare: each agent states LONG / SHORT / NEUTRAL with thesis text.
2. Round 2, Align: every agent is reclassified as AGREE or DISSENT against the running consensus.
3. Round 3, Verdict: the chair tallies the longs/shorts/neutrals and declares the conviction percentage.

4. Conviction, agreement, calibrated probability

Conviction is converted to a raw probability (50 + score · 40) and then calibrated against the historical hit-rate stored in learning.json. The Settings tab lets you require a minimum calibrated probability (default 55%) and a minimum reward/risk after fees (default 1.2×). A signal must clear both gates plus the conviction floor to be promoted to "actionable".

5. From signal to playbook

When a signal becomes actionable the playbook generator (playbook.js) computes a Robinhood-friendly trade plan tuned for tiny accounts:

• Entry: limit order with a small price-protection buffer (no chasing).
• Stop: the larger of 1.5 × ATR, 2% of price, or $0.05.
• Target: sized so realized R/R, after round-trip slippage and friction, still meets your minimum (default 1.2×).
• Hold window: never beyond 5 minutes before the regular session close, regardless of intraday targets.
• SHORT picks on Robinhood return a "skip or use a Put option" notice, the app refuses to draw a short order ticket on a cash account.

6. Position sizing & the R/R math

The sizer is intentionally conservative. Two formulas race; the smaller wins:

risk_per_share = stop_distance + 2 × slippage_per_share
fixed_risk_shares = floor( riskUSD / risk_per_share )
half_kelly_shares = floor( fixed_risk_shares × 0.5 )
shares = max( 1, min( fixed_risk_shares, half_kelly_shares ) )

Worked example: 25 USD risk, $40 stock, $0.60 stop distance:

• Slippage per share ≈ $40 × 0.0015 × 2 = $0.12
• Risk per share = $0.60 + $0.12 = $0.72
• Max shares by fixed-$ rule = floor(25 / 0.72) = 34
• Half-Kelly cap = 17
• Final size = 17 shares · order ≈ $680 · max loss ≈ $12.24

Break-even win-rate at the configured R/R floor of 1.2× is 100 / (1 + 1.2) ≈ 45.5%. If your sustained hit-rate falls below that, the system is losing money even when "right".

7. Alerts: UI, browser push, SMS

• UI banner & sound: every actionable signal pops a sheet at the bottom of the screen and a soft chime.
• Browser notifications: granted via the standard permission prompt; titled "marketXED · LONG TICKER".
• SMS: when Twilio credentials are configured in Admin, the same alert is sent to your phone only between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. ET and de-duplicated for 6 minutes per ticker/direction.

Every alert is recorded in SMS History. There is no auto-execution: you open Robinhood and place the order.

8. The learning loop

For every actionable pick the system writes a row to predictions.jsonl: ticker, direction, entry, stop, target, conviction, agent votes, and the regime classification. After the trade window closes (or the next day), the actual outcome is matched and the per-agent / per-regime hit-rate is updated.

These rates feed back as multiplicative weights on each agent's confidence in the next cycle. Over time, agents that consistently fail in a given regime are progressively muted; agents that are reliably correct are amplified. There is no neural network and no opaque "AI", every weight is human-readable in learning.json.

10. Due-diligence checklist (run before every trade)

• Is the calibrated probability ≥ my Settings threshold?
• Is the after-fees R/R ≥ my Settings threshold?
• Is the spread < 1% of price? (Open the ticker in Robinhood and look.)
• Is there a known earnings, FDA, or macro event inside my hold window? If yes, skip.
• Will the trade put me over the PDT count?
• Is the dollar risk ≤ 1% of total liquid net worth? (Ignore the 25 USD default if your real budget is smaller.)
• Have I had two stops in a row today? If yes, stop trading for the day.
• Did I read the playbook's steps in full and understand each one?

11. Glossary

ATR

Average True Range: typical bar-to-bar movement; the basis for stop distance.

R/R

Reward-to-risk: target distance divided by risk distance, after fees.

Conviction

Composite score combining direction strength, agent agreement, and coverage.

Calibrated probability

The raw probability adjusted by the engine's actual historical hit-rate.

Regime

A classification of current market behavior (trending up/down, range, high-vol, etc.).

Veto

A hard rule that disqualifies a signal regardless of score (e.g. liquidity, halts).

Slippage

Difference between the price you saw and the price you got filled at.

Half-Kelly

Half of the Kelly-criterion size: a defensive scaling that survives bad streaks.

EOD

End-of-day: the regular-session 4 p.m. ET close.

PDT

Pattern Day Trader: FINRA designation that restricts day-trading on small accounts.

1. Acceptance of terms

By accessing or using marketXED you agree to these Terms and the Privacy section below. If you do not agree, stop using the service.

2. Eligibility

You must be at least 18 years old, legally capable of entering a binding contract in your jurisdiction, and not barred from trading securities by any applicable regulator.

3. Service description

marketXED is a software-only decision-support tool. It scans market data, runs an internal committee of analytical agents, and surfaces signals and playbooks. It does not place orders, hold customer funds, or act as a broker, dealer, investment adviser, or money manager.

5. User responsibilities

• You are responsible for every order you place at your broker.
• You will not abuse, scrape, reverse-engineer, or attempt to disrupt the service.
• You will keep your account credentials and the phone bound to your account secure.
• You will comply with PDT rules, tax obligations, and any other regulation applicable to you.

6. Subscription & billing

Premium access is sold as a 24-hour pass billed via Stripe. Charges are non-refundable once the access window has been delivered, except where required by law. You can cancel at any time; previously delivered passes remain valid until they expire.

7. Privacy & data we collect

• Phone number — your unique identifier; used for OTP login and SMS alerts.
• Session tokens — random opaque cookies stored locally to keep you signed in.
• Subscription state — Stripe customer/subscription IDs and access expiry timestamps.
• Operational logs — signals delivered, SMS attempts (with delivery status), and audit trails of admin actions.
• Support messages — anything you submit via the Support form, plus the phone bound to the session that submitted it.

We do not sell your data and we do not share it with advertisers. The data lives in a local SQLite database on the operator's server.

8. Cookies & local storage

A single first-party session cookie (mf_session) is set on successful login. The browser may also cache a small amount of UI state (last selected tab, notification preferences). No third-party tracking cookies are used.

9. Third-party services

• Yahoo Finance — public market data.
• X / Twitter — sentiment feed (when enabled).
• Twilio — outbound SMS for alerts and OTP.
• Stripe — payments. Card details are entered on Stripe's servers; we never see them.
• SEC EDGAR — filings used by the dilution-veto agent.
• xAI — optional copilot (only if you enable it).

11. Termination

We may suspend or terminate accounts that violate these Terms, abuse the service, or attempt to harm other users or the system. You can stop using the service at any time by signing out and ceasing access.

12. Changes & contact

These Terms may be updated; the effective version is whatever is published in this view. For questions, complaints, or data-deletion requests, use the Support tab in the sidebar.

Before you reach out

• Check WhitePaper — most "is this a bug?" questions are answered there in plain English.
• Subscription / billing — if a payment didn't unlock access within a minute, send us your phone number and approximate time of payment. We can reconcile it manually.
• SMS not arriving — confirm your phone is correct in User Info, and that you have not blocked the sender. Carrier deliverability varies.
• Account / data deletion — submit a request through the form; we will purge your record within 7 days.

What we ask you to include

1. A clear subject (e.g. "Stripe charge but no access").
2. What you expected to happen, and what actually happened.
3. The ticker, time (with timezone), and screenshot if relevant.
4. Whether the issue is reproducible.

We do not ask for passwords, OTP codes, broker credentials, card numbers, or your account balance. If a "support agent" ever asks for those — it isn't us.

Response time

Best-effort within 48 hours. Trading-blocking issues (login failure, payment stuck) get priority. We are a small team — please be patient and kind.